MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN WI...NRN IL...NRN INDIANA...SRN
   LM...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NWRN OH.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624...625...
   
   VALID 111210Z - 111345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   624...625...CONTINUES.
   
   CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DESCRIBED BELOW. 
   CONVECTIVE/DESTABILIZATION TRENDS ACROSS LOWER MI PORTION OF WW WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE FARTHER E ACROSS SERN LOWER
   MI AND PERHAPS EXTREME NWRN OH.  ISOLATED SVR ALSO IS POSSIBLE OVER
   CENTRAL IL S OF WWS...BUT THREAT IS MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL THERE
   GIVEN STRENGTHENING CINH AND WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT.
   
   1. BOW ECHO STRADDLING IL/WI BORDER...TURNING EWD AND MOVING ABOUT
   55-60 KT.  SIGNIFICANT TSTM-WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.  BASED ON SEVERAL
   MEASURED-SVR WINDS ALREADY RECORDED...PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS
   EVIDENT IN VELOCITY DISPLAYS AND AIR MASS IN PROJECTED PATH...MCS IS
   LIKELY DERECHO-PRODUCER EWD AT LEAST TO LAKEFRONT BETWEEN
   CHI-MKE...PERHAPS FARTHER DOWNSHEAR ACROSS MICHIANA REGION.  THIS
   COMPLEX WILL ENCOUNTER AND LIFT FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL
   AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER/WI
   MCS...FORCING AIR WITH ABOUT 20 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND 2-2.25
   INCH PW ALOFT TO REALIZE MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG.  WELL-DEVELOPED
   REAR-INFLOW JET WAS EVIDENT WITH THIS COMPLEX AT DBQ...WHERE 64-KT
   FLOW WAS CLOCKED OVER 20 MIN AFTER INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
   WITH GUST FRONT.
   
   2. LESS-INTENSE BUT STILL DAMAGING SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE BOWING
   ACROSS WRN LOWER MI...WITH SVR GUST POTENTIAL INCREASING AS IT MOVES
   ESEWD INTO DIABATICALLY HEATING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS
   PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI.  ATTM...OBSERVATIONALLY MODULATED
   MODEL-SOUNDING ANALYSES INDICATE MLCINH INCREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH
   EWD EXTENT OVER LOWER MI...AND NEAR-SFC THETAE DECREASES. 
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION JUST ABOVE SFC MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EWD TO LH AND ONT BORDER WITH
   ATTENDANT SVR THREAT.  SEPARATE/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY TO ITS S ALSO
   MAY POSE ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   MKX...DVN...
   
   LAT...LON   41239045 41968977 43038997 43438770 43988622 43958472
               43878443 43928335 44088292 43978264 43518253 43018240
               42568257 42688268 42638278 42358290 42298310 42028313
               41808346 41698350 41318408 40848522 40678662 40598816
               40148939 39929028 41239045