MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SC...NC...SRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 081701Z - 081830Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
   VA...NC AND SC THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT BUT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
   WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE IN THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
   AND FOOTHILLS OF SC AND NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS ACROSS
   THE REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
   RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
   WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SC AND SRN NC WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORMS.
   FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NRN NC AND SRN VA...WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 30
   TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB
   SUGGESTING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
   STORMS INITIATE AND CONGEAL OVER WRN NC AND WCNTRL VA...A WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   36278107 35838154 35148253 34598230 34118172 33778117
               33038097 33048033 33917919 34957731 35577629 36557602
               36817671 36757808 37317938 37438018 36918058 36278107