MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN TN...NERN AR...EXTREME NRN MS...MO
   BOOT-HEEL.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609...
   
   VALID 080620Z - 080815Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609
   CONTINUES.
   
   PRIMARY REMAINING THREAT MAY BE IN FORM OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH
   2 INCH/HOUR RATES LIKELY IN HEAVIER CORES...SOME OF WHICH WILL
   PARTICIPATE IN TRAIN-ECHO CONFIGURATIONS TO EXACERBATE HEAVY RAIN
   THREAT.
   
   AS FOR SVR...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
   WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOR PSBL WW FARTHER E AND SE...HOWEVER
   CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE OTHERWISE.  THREAT APPEARS TO BE GETTING
   LESS WELL-ORGANIZED AS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES INTO LOWER-THETAE
   AIR MASS...AND AS GUST FRONT SURGES AHEAD OF WEAKENING
   REFLECTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY/INITIAL COMPLEX.  IN ITS
   WAKE...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED EVAPORATIONAL
   CONTRIBUTION TO COLD-POOL INTENSITY.  ACCORDINGLY...ISALLOBARIC
   CHART SHOWS ONLY MODEST RISES.  WITHOUT MORE ROBUST COLD-POOL
   EVOLUTION...PROSPECTS FOR WELL-ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT
   DOWNSHEAR APPEAR MRGL/CONDITIONAL AT MOST. THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT
   ISOLATED SVR HOWEVER.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP N
   OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN AR WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOTH
   1. FOR ANY PARCELS THAT CAN BE LIFTED FROM NEAR SFC WHERE DEW POINTS
   REMAIN IN 70S F...AND
   2. FROM 30-KT WSWLY LLJ EMANATING FROM REGION OF ROUGHLY 2-INCH PW
   INDICATED BY GPS MEASUREMENTS OVER CENTRAL AR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
   
   LAT...LON   36549194 36548896 36238830 35918812 34918841 34759013
               35079120 36119169 36549194