MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 071559Z - 071730Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
   ECNTRL MT. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED AND MARGINAL TO
   WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ECNTRL MT NORTH OF
   BILLINGS IN A MAXIMUM OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED
   AHEAD OF THE STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN ERN MT ESTIMATED FROM 1200
   TO 1600 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
   THE STORMS ARE LOCATED BENEATH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
   WHICH IS LIMITING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THIS MAY KEEP THE SEVERE
   THREAT MARGINAL OR RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
   
   LAT...LON   48000646 48360729 48280806 48060836 47640867 46960855
               46450817 46250731 46440660 46950600 47450603 48000646