MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MT...NRN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 062019Z - 062245Z
   
   A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
   ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
   THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW OVER NERN MT WITH A TROUGH
   AXIS EXTENDING SWD/SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO FAR NRN WY. A REGION OF
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
   LOWER 60S -- IS FOUND INVOF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WWD/NWWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM
   OVERLAYING THIS MOISTURE...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO 500-1500
   J/KG. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS RECENTLY CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION OVER THE LITTLE BELT MOUNTAINS SE OF GREAT FALLS...AND
   OVER THE ABSAROKA RANGE AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS FARTHER TO THE SE.
   ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
   SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING OVER THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
   MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...ENHANCED BY EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO LOCALLY 30 KT. WHILE MARGINALLY LARGE
   HAIL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG AND
   POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN DCAPE
   VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...TFX...
   
   LAT...LON   46960990 46310932 45950820 46500619 46530521 45760420
               44470430 43840590 44300817 44811015 45281127 46131183
               46881200 47261139 47281074 46960990