MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL NEB...SW IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 051949Z - 052115Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB THIS
   AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE
   APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES CONCERNING
   SFC-BASED INITIATION.
   
   THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   NEAR THE NEB-SD STATE-LINE WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ON
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH
   OF CNTRL AND SRN NEB...CLEAR SKIES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG SFC
   HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2000 TO 3500
   J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE CAPPING
   INVERSION HAS DIMINISHED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SFC-BASED INITIATION WILL BE
   ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE AND THE
   GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
   F. ONCE SFC-BASED STORMS INITIATE...A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY
   DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT
   ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT SHOULD
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AS CELLS
   INTENSIFY. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...LBF...
   
   LAT...LON   41759607 42089806 42069928 41830017 41230101 40720099
               40519911 40279736 40079601 40429495 41049496 41759607