MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WI...UPPER MI...FAR SE MN...FAR NE IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 051729Z - 051900Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER
   MI...ERN-SCNTRL WI AND FAR NE IA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO
   BE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BUT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
   WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
   
   A SMALL AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NE WI NEAR A
   MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY AND JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT
   ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF MLCAPE IN
   THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE WI-UPPER MI STATE-LINE. IN
   ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
   BE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS CELLS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL
   MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. BOTH THE WIND DAMAGE AND
   HAIL THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND BRIEF.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...
   
   LAT...LON   43049097 43408823 44628746 45418677 46028643 46448672
               46488713 46318780 45808846 44568994 43629173 43049097