MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO....SRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588...
   
   VALID 032035Z - 032130Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588
   CONTINUES.
   
   AN ELONGATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ERUPTED ALONG A STATIONARY
   COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. DUE TO WEAK
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED
   LIMITED/CHAOTIC WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ON 0.5 DEG
   KLSX BASE REFLECTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS...VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
   THETA-E CONTINUES TO AID IN A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS /PRIMARILY
   IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS/ AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
   CORES. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER W-CNTRL MO NEAR A REMNANT
   MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS ALSO PROGRESSING EWD TOWARDS WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE TSTMS
   WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY FRONT.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 07/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   37929240 39399239 39438766 37988762 37929240