MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...NRN WV AND ERN PANHANDLE...SWRN PA...WRN
   AND CNTRL MD...FAR NRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 031922Z - 032015Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST HR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO SERN PA. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
   HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...BUT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   SCT TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT /ANALYZED
   FROM NEAR UNI TO 25 SE HLG/...AND ALONG A WEAK WIND
   SHIFT/CONVERGENCE LINE PROTRUDING EWD NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER. A
   RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THETA-E WAS ALSO
   ANALYZED JUST AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG /PER 19Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   FIELDS/. WITH NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 20-25 KTS ALONG THE NRN
   PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE SRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE...THESE TSTMS SHOULD
   MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL AND STRONG-SVR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WITHIN SMALL MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WW ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 07/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   38898173 38958232 39018277 39278300 39608234 40018112
               40138029 40047879 39917722 39617679 38947725 38887957
               38838054 38898173