MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 022157Z - 022300Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A DRY MICROBURST OR TWO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
   ACROSS S-CNTRL AZ --INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX METRO-- LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP/DECAY MAY
   POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK.  VERY ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT WILL
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR SEVERE TSTM WATCH CONSIDERATION. 
   
   SURFACE/SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS HOT TEMPS IN THE 110S ACROSS THE
   LOWER DESERTS S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.  DEEPENING CONVECTION/STORMS
   ARE PROPAGATING WWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS S-CNTRL AZ. 
   GIVEN THE HOT SURFACE TEMPS AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...SURFACE T/TD
   SPREADS OF OVER 70 DEG F HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. 
   THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE FROM THE SURFACE TO
   MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNDRAFT TRANSPORT. 
   MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE DMGG WIND THREAT ARE 1)
   LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE 2) WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  DESPITE THOSE
   FACTORS...KIWA 88D IMAGERY DISPLAYED A MICROBURST SIGNATURE NEAR THE
   PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTY LINE IN THE PAST HOUR AND AN ELONGATED COLD
   POOL SURGING WWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
   IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
   HOURS AS STORMS/COLD POOLS MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE I-17 CORRIDOR NEAR
   AND N OF THE PHX METRO.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   LAT...LON   33051222 33871248 34751219 34921183 34481117 33901034
               33551036 33001088 32911139 33051222