MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...EXTREME NWRN OH...NRN IND...CNTRL/NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 021806Z - 021900Z
   
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR PARTS OF THE
   REGION...GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT.  MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   TAIL-END OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL GRAZE PARTS OF
   THE MIDWEST THIS AFTN WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
   REACH AS FAR S AS CNTRL IL/NRN IND BY THIS EVENING.  AN INITIAL TSTM
   HAS FORMED OVER LWR MI AMID SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND EXPECT THAT
   STORMS WILL BACKBUILD WSW ALONG SEGMENTED COLD FRONT TOWARD CNTRL IL
   WITH TIME THIS AFTN.  MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
   RATES TO 8 C PER KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SVR STORMS/ISOLD
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.  THE
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT ABOVE
   INGREDIENTS WILL COMPENSATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   MKX...LSX...DVN...
   
   LAT...LON   41199022 43948496 43988181 42798136 41008443 39968825
               40049111 41199022