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Mesoscale Discussion 1447 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SWRN WY...WRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301451Z - 301545Z
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN UT INTO SWRN WY
AND WRN CO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
BE LIKELY...ROUGHLY 70 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. PRIMARY
THREATS...SVR WINDS/HAIL.
COMPACT UPR LOW WITH 50 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO EJECT ENE
ACROSS ERN UT THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL DRY SLOT ALONG CO/UT BORDER
HAS ALLOWED AIR MASS TO HEAT RAPIDLY AMID 0.75-0.90 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. COMBINATION OF VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN UT. EXPECT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AS THEY SWEEP ENE TOWARD WRN CO AND SWRN WY
THROUGH THE AFTN.
BACKED DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH
ATTENDANT SVR WIND THREATS...BUT GIVEN 50-60 KTS OF VERTICAL
SHEAR...A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FROM ECNTRL UT INTO WCNTRL CO THROUGH
MID-AFTN. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO.
EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND ENE INTO CNTRL/ERN WY AND SWD INTO
SCNTRL/CNTRL CO WITH TIME THIS AFTN.
..RACY.. 06/30/2011
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 37861068 38111104 38441123 38701125 39031122 39401110
40071093 40551062 41001030 41340965 41550907 41590850
41540783 41370753 41120725 40820693 40630669 39920641
39330637 38750638 38100643 37600670 37210714 37380781
37560813 37680840 37870884 38000929 38030977 37941026
37861068
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