MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UT...FAR WRN CO...SWRN WY...SERN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 291941Z - 292145Z
   
   A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   A PLUME OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
   EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN PER RECENT GPS PW
   DATA -- I.E. PWAT VALUES OF 0.65 TO 0.80 INCH. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OWING TO STRONG HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS COUPLED WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL FOSTER THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY MODERATE TO
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF
   DCAPE VALUES OF 1200 TO 1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE INTENSE MICROBURSTS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR SFC WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE EXACERBATED
   BY DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN
   DOWNDRAFTS...AS THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA VWP DEPICTS 40 TO 65 KT OF
   AMBIENT FLOW IN THE 2-5-KM AGL LAYER. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS
   ALREADY BEING MANIFESTED AT THE SFC OUTSIDE OF DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION
   AS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT PER MESOWEST OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH
   THE DISCUSSION AREA LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
   CENTERED OVER CNTRL CA AND ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS...SYNOPTIC-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED. THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE COVERAGE
   OF THE SVR STORM THREAT SUCH THAT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
   NECESSARY.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...
   
   LAT...LON   39031292 40251299 41541270 42571204 43291121 43591018
               43360850 42330774 40910780 39530861 38820910 38190985
               37791082 37851205 38281265 39031292