MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY AND NE PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 282242Z - 290015Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH PRE-FRONTAL
   SQUALL LINE...BUT ONGOING AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT
   SUGGEST A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS FORMED ALONG AND IS NOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE
   SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM N CENTRAL PA INTO W CENTRAL NY.  THE
   CONVECTIVE BAND WILL BE SUPPORTED THIS EVENING BY ASCENT IN ADVANCE
   OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 750-1500 J PER
   KG/.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS...RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LAPSE RATES DO NOT
   APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
   THUS...WHILE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...A WATCH MAY NOT BE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 06/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   42157411 41747456 40817614 40917716 41217730 41587705
               42247634 42707548 43177490 43777471 44037448 44047372
               43717334 42877345 42157411