MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR SWRN NEB...WRN KS...WRN OK
   PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 282029Z - 282200Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS COULD INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO
   AND NM...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING EWD TOWARD FAR SWRN NEB...WRN
   KS...THE WRN OK PANHANDLE...AND THE FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BUILDING CUMULUS FIELD
   OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AND FARTHER
   SOUTH OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NERN NM. AREA RADARS
   DEPICT WIDELY SCATTERED DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES EVOLVING FROM THE
   CUMULUS FIELD...LIKELY OWING TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES IN THE ABSENCE
   OF A MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
   IMAGERY. GPS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT THE
   DISCUSSION AREA IS OVER THE NWRN FRINGES OF A PLUME OF RICHER
   MOISTURE -- MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS PER RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- WITH PWAT VALUES OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH. THIS
   MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DIABATIC HEATING OVER ELEVATED
   HEAT SOURCES...WILL FOSTER CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
   
   MODEST WLY FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
   CONVECTION TOWARD THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AFTER 21Z...WHERE SFC
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. WITH
   700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9.5 C/KM OVERLAYING THIS RELATIVELY
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL BE SUPPORTED.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35 TO 45 KT COULD PROMOTE
   SUPERCELLS...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. OBSERVED SFC
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 40F WILL KEEP CONVECTION
   HIGH-BASED IN NATURE...WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG/DMGG OUTFLOW WINDS.
   RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINEAR CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD A LARGER-SCALE COLD POOL
   DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS
   COULD ENSUE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RELATIVELY GREATER AMOUNTS OF CINH
   OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COULD MITIGATE THE THREAT
   WITH TIME...THOUGH THIS MAY BE OFFSET IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
   EVOLVES.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   40410508 40890476 40950272 40080144 38190126 36570189
               35920333 35920447 36520529 37160532 38130501 39030473
               39540479 40410508