MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NC...NRN SC...FAR SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567...
   
   VALID 272007Z - 272130Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567
   CONTINUES.
   
   FRONTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS FAR SERN
   VA AND FAR NRN NC...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCI FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
   SVR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WW567 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA
   BREEZE HAS RECENTLY ACCELERATED WELL INLAND IN RESPONSE TO ATTENDANT
   CONVECTION AND MERGING COLD POOLS. MEANWHILE...THE SRN FLANK OF THE
   COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH
   THE RALEIGH AREA WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE AGGREGATE OUTFLOW / SEA
   BREEZE BOUNDARY PROPAGATING NWWD TO FAVOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 NE FAY TO 35 ESE
   RWI DURING THE NEXT HOUR. WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT
   OCCURRED...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500
   J/KG. THIS WILL FOSTER VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
   THREAT FOR SVR STORMS. WET MICROBURSTS...OWING TO STRONG WATER
   LOADING SUPPORTED BY PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.65 INCHES PER GPS
   TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT...COULD PRODUCE DMGG SFC WINDS...AS
   HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
   WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE WHERE STORM CLUSTERS BECOME BETTER
   ORGANIZED IN RESPONSE TO MERGING COLD POOLS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THE
   AFOREMENTIONED PWAT VALUES COULD SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
   1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER WEST OF WW567
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
   COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD
   BRIEFLY POSE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT...THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
   MITIGATED AS IT IMPINGES ON A MINIMUM IN MLCAPE BETWEEN THE ACTIVITY
   AND THE WRN FRINGES OF WW567. AS SUCH...WWD EXPANSION OF WW567 IS
   NOT NECESSARY.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35908232 35948107 36107928 36457798 36547728 36927681
               36917638 36587593 35937556 35207549 34287716 33897781
               33647871 33717929 33817932 34537964 34698023 34678127
               34558174 34458218 34628267 35278271 35908232