MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...WRN/SRN MO...EXTREME NERN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 261513Z - 261615Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ZONE OF
   ELEVATED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC OVER SERN KS...NEAR NOSE OF
   LINGERING NOCTURNAL LLJ.  ADDITIONAL/WEAKER CONVECTION WWD TOWARD
   MHK ALSO MAY FLARE UP AT LEAST BRIEFLY TO NEAR SVR LEVELS.  MAIN
   CONCERN IN NEAR TERM IS OCNL LARGE HAIL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
   REGARDING DURATION/COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
   ATTM.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
   THAT TSTMS MAY PERSIST INTO AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER
   INSTABILITY FARTHER E AND DEVELOP BOUNDARY-LAYER PENETRATING COLD
   POOL...IN WHICH CASE MORE ORGANIZED/MULT-MODAL THREAT MAY WARRANT
   WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DOUBLE-STRUCTURE OF WARM FRONT EMANATING FROM
   SWRN KS LOW..WITH NEAREST BOUNDARY INVOF DC-SLN-EMP-VIH LINE...THEN
   OVER SERN MO...BLENDING WITH OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT COMPLEX.  S OF
   THIS BOUNDARY...RICH SFC MOISTURE IS EVIDENT...WITH DEW POINTS 70S
   F...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE THROUGH 850 MB PER 12Z UPR AIR
   ANALYSES.  HOWEVER 12Z LMN RAOB AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
   STG MLCINH OVERSPREADING THIS AREA AND EWD INTO SWRN MO...WEAKENING
   WITH EWD EXTENT ONLY FROM SGF AREA EWD.  EXPECTED AMOUNT OF WARMING
   ABOVE SFC IS SUCH THAT CAP MAY BE MAINTAINED OR EVEN STRENGTHEN
   SLIGHTLY IN FACE OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS SERN KS AND MO W
   SGF...WHILE CINH REMAINS WEAKER E SGF OFF ERN RIM OF STRONGEST
   ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR.  AS SUCH...PRIND TSTMS WILL REMAIN ROOTED
   ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EWD
   PROGRESSION ACROSS MO.  MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF WARM/INVERSION LAYER
   ALSO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HAIL MELTING SUCH THAT SIZES AT GROUND DO NOT
   MATCH ALGORITHMIC OUTPUT WELL.  THIS AREA IS ON SWRN FRINGE OF AREA
   OF 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...BUT ALSO UNDER EWD-MOVING
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT BEYOND
   WAA-RELATED ASCENT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   36589357 36839501 37529557 37839582 38439600 39249648
               39029460 38589272 37939172 36869208 36649339 36589357