MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...FAR NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 251827Z - 252030Z
   
   AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FORM AND POSE A CONDITIONAL SVR
   THREAT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT AN AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER
   CUMULUS FIELD EXTENDING SWD FROM SEDGWICK AND BUTLER COUNTIES INTO
   COWLEY COUNTY IN S-CNTRL KS AND FAR NRN KAY/OSAGE COUNTIES IN
   N-CNTRL OK. THIS REGION IS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF AN
   EAST-WEST-ORIENTED COMPOSITE SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE / OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS DECELERATED ITS SWD PROGRESS AND NOW LIES JUST
   NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 400 CORRIDOR IN SRN KS PER FINE LINE EVIDENT IN
   0.5-DEGREE REFLECTIVITY/SPECTRUM-WIDTH DATA FROM WICHITA RADAR. THE
   ENHANCED CUMULUS GROWTH IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF ERODING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND AN EWD-MOVING BOUNDARY ALSO EVIDENT IN
   VANCE AIR FORCE BASE AND WICHITA RADAR IMAGERY.
   
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
   RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
   BOUNDARIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PRESENCE OF DIFFLUENT
   UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS WELL. SHOULD CONVECTION
   INITIATE...STRONG POTENTIAL UPWARD BUOYANCY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500
   TO 3500 J PER KG/ OWING TO STRONG SFC DIABATIC HEATING AMIDST
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
   SEVERE STORM THREAT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT
   WOULD ALSO YIELD A CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL THREAT...WITH ATTENDANT
   RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
   CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   OWING TO THE PRONOUNCED WARM-LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB EVIDENT IN
   THE LAMONT OK AND TOPEKA KS 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...WHICH MAY FAIL
   TO BE ERODED SUFFICIENTLY TO PERMIT THE GENERATION OF DEEP
   CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND
   A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS MORE
   LIKELY.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36849686 37209736 37769749 38019730 38269647 38459521
               38019475 37269495 36849583 36849686