MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN OH...MIDDLE TN...SRN/ERN KY...WV.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 541...
   
   VALID 232004Z - 232200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 541 CONTINUES.
   
   CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT...WHICH STILL WAS ANALYZED W
   OF WW AREA AS OF 1945Z.  PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS WITH BKN BAND OF
   CONVECTION THAT EXTENDED FROM OH/WV BORDER REGION SWWD TO NEAR
   BNA...AND WHICH SHOULD CROSS ERN KY...NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN WV
   DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  WEAKER CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THAT ACTIVITY AND
   COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE AND MAKE SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT
   POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TCU AND SMALL CB ARE
   EVIDENT IN THAT CORRIDOR.  DESPITE WLY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES IN 35-45 KT RANGE OVER MOST OF WW AREA.
   
   SVR POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD SOMEWHAT E OF WW OVER CENTRAL WV...BUT MORE
   LIMITED IN SCOPE GIVEN SOMEWHAT DRIER...LESS STRONGLY HEATED...LOWER
   THETAE AIR OVER ERN WV.  TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
   AND SVR POTENTIAL MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM SRN
   PORTIONS WW AREA ACROSS MIDDLE/SWRN TN...AHEAD OF FRONT.  WHILE SFC
   THETAE AND MLCAPE EACH INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT OVER THOSE
   AREAS...CONVERGENCE WEAKENS...AND SHOULD NOT INCREASE WITH TIME
   GIVEN PASSAGE OF MID-UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT N
   OF AREA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...
   PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   35848823 39568279 39268136 38588043 37848105 36028453
               35108731 35848823