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Mesoscale Discussion 1366 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN VA...CENTRAL-ERN CAROLINAS...ERN GA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231740Z - 232015Z
TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS IN
COVERAGE OVER CAROLINAS...WHILE ACTIVITY ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN GA MAY MOVE NEWD INTO SRN PARTS OF THIS
CORRIDOR. MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF MULTILEVEL CLOUDS...AXIS OF WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO BKN PRECIP...FROM S-CENTRAL AL NEWD ACROSS NERN SC
AND WRN NC TO NERN VA AND DC AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD/PRECIP BAND
IS THINNING AND BECOMING FRAGMENTED...WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE IS EVIDENT ON ITS ERN RIM FROM NEAR MCN-RDU-RIC. ALONG
AND E OF THAT LINE...EWD TO COASTAL SEA BREEZES...AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE WITH UPPER 60S TO 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE AND VERY LITTLE CINH REMAINING. ACCORDINGLY...VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM CLOUDS IN WSW-ENE STREETS ALIGNED
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS. FLOW ALSO IS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
HEIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEIR STRONGEST EFFECTS WILL REMAIN N OF
AREA...SRN FRINGES OF MID-UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENTS WILL OCCUR FROM WRN/CENTRAL NC NWD. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SLGT ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-40 KT RANGE OVER PIEDMONT AREAS AND 25-35 KT
OVER COASTAL PLAIN.
..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2011
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 33648212 35507928 37477691 37517630 37157634 36967626
36927595 36327579 35707576 35027648 34707701 34417754
34067786 33787799 33907806 33887842 33667893 33097921
32458037 32038092 32348278 32318359 33648212
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