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Mesoscale Discussion 1342 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN TX...NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212043Z - 212145Z
DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
TX...WHILE A SEPARATE ONGOING CLUSTER IN ERN TX MAY CONGEAL AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF NWRN LA. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR SHV SWWD TO
ABOUT ACT...WHILE A SEPARATE BOUNDARY IS OBSERVED NEAR LFK WWD.
MEANWHILE...A NNE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR DALLAS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES MAY ALL SERVE AS INITIAL FOCI FOR
INCREASING CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY THE NEWLY
AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN TX.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE NEARLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS...THOUGH
WEAK HEIGHT RISES APPEAR TO BE HINDERING MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER FEATURE NOTED IN SOUTHWESTERN TX
ON 2030Z WV IMAGERY WILL PROGRESS EWD WITH TIME...AND MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION AMIDST
NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
..HURLBUT.. 06/21/2011
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 32969308 32049330 31559505 31059746 31249822 32239853
32949734 33329596 33259458 32969398 32969308
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