MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NRN AND CENTRAL TX TO SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529...
   
   VALID 210815Z - 210915Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529
   CONTINUES.
   
   AT 0750Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD AT 25-30 KT.  AT THIS SPEED...THESE
   STORMS WILL REACH THE SERN EXTENT OF WW 529 /HOPKINS TO ELLIS
   COUNTIES TX/ BY 10Z.  THIS FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS APPEARS TO BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
   TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TROUGH. 
   RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J PER KG/ AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL MAINTAIN THIS STRONG CLUSTER
   OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES ENHANCING A THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   FARTHER SW...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL TX...SIMILAR TO THE STORM LOCATED OVER COLEMAN
   COUNTY.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE SWD MOVING COLD
   FRONT...THOUGH STRONG SURFACE BASED INHIBITION SUGGESTS ANY NEW
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   MEANWHILE...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS SWRN INTO CENTRAL/SRN MO...WITHIN AND NE OF THE
   NERN EXTENT OF WW 529.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED SWWD FROM WEST CENTRAL IL TO 40 SW STL TO
   NWRN AR...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
   MOVING NNEWD THROUGH WRN MO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
   OVERNIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT
   SUGGEST MULTICELL STORM MODE.  ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT DOES
   NOT WARRANT A NEW WATCH TO THE ENE OF WW 529.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/21/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   32339987 32919873 33919811 34239682 34919583 35559501
               36359461 37239433 37799338 37149290 36509268 35759356
               35089405 34179498 32479556 31709653 30949809 30710008
               31730041 31990032 32339987