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Mesoscale Discussion 1327 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK INTO NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...
VALID 202235Z - 210000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525
CONTINUES.
SCATTERED DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY DRY LINE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA
FALLS. A 40-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD IS
ALLOWING FOR INITIATING STORMS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE DRY LINE...BUT
INHIBITION BENEATH LINGERING VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS
STILL ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MERGING WITH THE DRY LINE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ENID OKLAHOMA
AREA...BUT STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING /CENTERED AROUND 700 MB/ IS
JUST BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
REGION. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE THE DRY
LINE AND GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
NOW AND 00-02Z. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE THAT STORMS REMAIN RATHER
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES IN THE 01-03Z
TIME FRAME. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 06/20/2011
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 36159828 36629815 36989738 36879679 36699644 35749656
34409703 33679728 32859784 32159931 32270008 32839953
36159828
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