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Mesoscale Discussion 1304 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 511...514...
VALID 192318Z - 200015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 511...514...CONTINUES.
WITH WW 511 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...PORTIONS OF THIS WW MAY
NEED TO BE TEMPORALLY EXTENDED OR AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN TN.
AS OF 2310Z...A DISCRETE SUPERCELL WAS CENTERED ACROSS MACON COUNTY
TN ALONG AN ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. AIR MASS
S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG. BUNKERS MOTION FOR RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS
SHOULD FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SE ACROSS NRN MIDDLE TN. NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE EVIDENT IN NASHVILLE VWP WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LEFT-MOVERS POTENTIALLY TRACKING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION WOULD OCCUR INTO ERN TN/FAR ERN KY AFTER 00Z SCHEDULED
EXPIRATION OF WW 511.
..GRAMS.. 06/19/2011
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...
LAT...LON 36718780 36888711 36888591 36868470 36818397 36648365
36298356 35968362 35768379 35708409 35658447 35688489
35798572 35978650 36718780
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