MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS THROUGH NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 192052Z - 192245Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NRN KS
   INTO SRN NEB AND NWRN MO. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT INITIATION
   APPEARS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 22-01Z. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL
   RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER
   THIS EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.
   
   FIELD OF CUMULUS IS INCREASING AND LIFTING NWD IN VICINITY OF
   SHARPENING WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN KS INTO NWRN MO. A
   WARM EML WITH 14C TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB HAS ADVECTED ABOVE UPPER
   60S-70F DEWPOINTS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC WARMING HAVE
   RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 J/KG
   IN SWRN NEB TO 4000+ J/KG IN ERN KS. CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE WARM EML INCREASES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN STORMS WILL
   DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A VORT MAX PIVOTING
   NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD
   INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TOWARDS 00Z ALONG
   AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
   SIZE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   38909488 39499874 39770146 40920081 40999875 40569657
               40059503 39459419 38909488