MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SC...CNTRL/SERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 191729Z - 191830Z
   
   A THREAT OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS WILL
   INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW. 
   
   17Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER NC/SC...THOUGH A
   LEADING VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOW PROGRESSING INTO ERN KY/TN...WHILE
   A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS QUICKLY ADVANCING
   EWD...AND WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT LATER TODAY.
   MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REMNANT OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM FAR SWRN NC SSEWD INTO CAE...THEN EWD TO NEAR ILM. THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN INITIAL FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ALONG A TEMPORARILY WEAKENING MCS THAT IS PROGRESSING
   INTO FAR WRN TN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION APPEARS
   TO BE INITIALLY LIMITING DESTABILIZATION...BUT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
   SC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   AOA 2500 J/KG FROM GA INTO SC. GIVEN MODEST WLY FLOW...AS CONVECTION
   BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...EWD PROGRESSING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS
   CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   34168213 35148291 35788237 35878145 35177919 34657818
               33737887 33307933 33438040 34168213