MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...508...
   
   VALID 190405Z - 190530Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   506...508...CONTINUES.
   
   ...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
   INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI OVERNIGHT...
   
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN A ZONE OF
   STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...FROM SOUTHEAST
   KANSAS THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  A
   MORE RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH NOW APPEARS
   UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...PERHAPS AIDED BY INCREASINGLY
   DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE.  FURTHER EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   05-06Z...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD INTO
   THE OZARKS AND INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET /IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT 850 MB/.  INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR
   /CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP
   TO 2 INCHES/ WITH LARGE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.  GUIDANCE HAS
   BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT LATENT HEAT RELEASE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   VORTEX...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID AND
   SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   38359635 38779481 39009313 39019145 38499084 38049070
               37419106 37029259 36919466 37239634 37729688 38359635