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Mesoscale Discussion 1276
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...WRN NC...NWRN SC...SERN TN...AND NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...
   
   VALID 181821Z - 181945Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500
   CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
   WRN NC...SWRN NC...SERN TN AND NRN GA. ALSO...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND MAY DEVELOP EAST OF WW 500 INTO SWRN VA AND FARTHER
   EWD THROUGH WRN NC. COUNTIES IN GSP CWA CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AS
   NECESSARY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE FOR SWRN VA AND NWRN NC
   WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN VA INTO EXTREME WRN NC CONTINUES ESEWD AT
   AROUND 30 KT. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS
   IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM
   WITH MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 ACROSS WRN NC INTO SWRN VA. HOWEVER...THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM FURTHER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND
   THIS COULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE EAST
   OF CURRENT WW. VWP DATA FROM MORRISTOWN TN SHOWS A 50 KT WLY REAR
   INFLOW JET IN WAKE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH SWRN VA AND EXTREME NWRN
   NC WITH RADAR SIGNATURES SHOWING A SLIGHT BOWING CONFIGURATION AND
   ROTATING COMMA HEAD. IF TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   INTENSIFY...ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR RNK CWA.
   
   OTHERWISE...OTHER SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH SRN MIDDLE
   TN...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF WW
   500 INCLUDING SERN TN AND NRN GA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
   QUITE UNSTABLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   35338525 35268433 35358327 35658241 36188178 37058130
               37098008 36048043 34688175 34058367 34078508 34638551
               35338525 
   
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