MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND MUCH OF WESTERN MO TO
   EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 172344Z - 180115Z
   
   MONITORING FOR IMMINENT SIGNS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH
   WOULD LIKELY PROMPT ONE OR MORE WATCH ISSUANCES FOR AT LEAST
   PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A WATCH APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE
   EASTERN HALF OF KS TO WESTERN MO...BUT A WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED
   FOR EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA AND PERHAPS INTO SOUTHERN MN.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS AN INCREASINGLY MORE
   SCATTERED/CELLULAR-TYPE CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KS/FAR
   SOUTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN MO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...INCLUDING
   TOWERING CU JUST WEST OF WICHITA AS WELL AS NEAR TOPEKA KS. AN
   INCREASE IN TSTMS HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN EASTERN NEB /NEAR A COLD
   FRONT/. 
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE KS/OK
   BORDER NEAR/JUST WEST OF I-35...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   NORTHEAST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM FAR EASTERN NEB INTO SOUTHWEST
   KS...WITH A PRIOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
   ACROSS EASTERN KS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO. WHILE LARGE
   SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS RELATED TO
   THE STRENGTH OF A CAPPING INVERSION /ESPECIALLY ACROSS KS/...CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/INCREASE
   ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK. THIS COULD BE ALONG THE ARCING COLD
   FRONT...AND PROBABLY MORE SO...NEAR THE WARM FRONT/PRIOR OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   NOCTURNALLY INCREASES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...MPX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
   ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   37189821 37379869 37949900 38929874 39709811 41639693
               43959664 43849486 40219422 39649365 38659200 38509195
               37219237 37599487 37819599 37189821