MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MS THROUGH CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 171449Z - 171615Z
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH E-CNTRL MS AND
   CNTRL AL TO INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A SLIGHT
   RISK ON THE 1630Z UPDATE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING AN MCS WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION EXTENDS
   FROM NERN MS THROUGH NRN AL MOVING SWD AT AROUND 20 KT. RADAR DATA
   INDICATE THE GUST FRONT HAS MOVED AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION CORES
   SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL CAPPED. DIABATIC WARMING WILL
   FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP...AND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 90F
   LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN...SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL
   UPDRAFTS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. THE WARM
   SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
   2500-3000 J/KG. WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 30 KT WILL SUPPORT
   MULTICELLS...BUT WITH THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUFFICIENT
   FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS
   ACTIVITY CONTINUES SWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   33538821 33728736 33628665 33158622 32418628 31998700
               31918812 32308904 33198910 33538821