MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 150529Z - 150730Z
   
   TSTM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE OZARKS
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
   SEVERE AND A WATCH IS STILL BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE REGION.
   
   UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS MO/AR THROUGH
   THE NIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT ON VERY MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOST LIKELY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
   ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY. BROKEN LINE SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   FRONTAL ADVANCE WAS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. WHILE
   THERE CURRENTLY IS A GAP IN STORM COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THIS AND
   ADDITIONAL STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NERN MO AND
   IA...PARTS OF SRN AND CNTRL MO...AND AREAS OF NRN AR...WILL LIKELY
   FILL IN WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY
   MARGINAL OVER SOME OF THE AREA TO SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT
   OF SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THIS MAY CHANGE AND STORMS MAY
   BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN
   INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN MO IS ALSO A CONCERN.
   IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME...A TORNADO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT EITHER.
   
   SITUATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY BEING EVALUATED AND A
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   36789366 37449387 37749417 38639400 38839329 38889253
               38819175 38479079 37989010 37508998 36979003 36588992
               36139047 35839115 35539178 35469207 35349263 35349288
               35429347 36789366