MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN/CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 475...
   
   VALID 150047Z - 150145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 475 CONTINUES.
   
   RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS FAR
   NWRN/N-CNTRL MO AND SWRN IA OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS...THOUGH ACTIVITY
   HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY THUS FAR LIKELY DUE TO INHIBITION IN THE
   850-700 MB WARM LAYER /OBSERVED IN 00Z TOP SOUNDING/. SUBJECTIVE SFC
   ANALYSIS FROM 00Z PLACES A 1002 MB SFC LOW NEAR STJ WITH A COLD
   FRONT PROTRUDING S-SWD. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SEWD INTO CNTRL
   MO...WITH A DISCRETE STORM CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED NEAR CDJ. 
   
   UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS PROGRESSING EWD AND
   SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HRS...WITH INCREASING FORCED ASCENT AIDING IN WEAKENING
   INHIBITION. WITH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE
   PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE
   THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST SOLUTION OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HI-RESOLUTION
   WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS LATER
   TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   LAT...LON   38059427 41139548 41129243 38079132 38059427