MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IA...MO...IL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 140821Z - 141115Z
   
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS
   OF IA...MO...AND IL EARLY TODAY. AS STORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS
   ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...RAINFALL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR
   WILL AGGRAVATE ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES
   INDICATE OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   ARC OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS ALONG AND EAST OF 700MB
   FRONTAL ZONE FROM CENTRAL IA SEWD TO ERN MO AND WRN IL EARLY TODAY.
   MASS AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO AND ACROSS THE FRONTAL SURFACE...FROM
   THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID
   STORM REGENERATION ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. LIFT WITHIN THIS REGIME
   IS FURTHER SUPPORTED/ENHANCED BY ONGOING COUPLING OF JET STREAKS ON
   EITHER SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION. IN
   ADDITION TO HIGH PW AIR MASS AIDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...STORM
   ELEMENT PROPAGATION ON THE WRN/SRN FLANK OF THE MCS SHOULD BEGIN TO
   FAVOR EVEN GREATER BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
   DIRECTED INTO THESE AREAS REACHES ITS MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
   MORNING INTENSITY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   40519250 41229298 41409269 41099155 40119020 39849031
               39629049 39789129 40199192 40519250