MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF IA AND NORTHERN/EASTERN MO TO WESTERN
   IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 140457Z - 140630Z
   
   A FURTHER INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
   OVERNIGHT WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM FAR NORTHERN MO AND
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA TO EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL...WITH SEVERE
   HAIL/PERHAPS STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY
   RAINFALL. CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.
   
   ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MO/SOUTHEAST IA TO WESTERN IL...A
   CONGLOMERATION OF ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO CONGEAL. WHILE A
   MOIST/UNSTABLE FEED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   THE REGENERATION OF STRONG UPDRAFTS/VIGOROUS TSTMS...HAIL POTENTIAL
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE MITIGATED BY STORM MODE/INDIVIDUAL
   UPDRAFT INTERFERENCE. THUS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EXPAND/FORWARD
   PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
   APPRECIABLE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/POTENTIAL FORWARD ACCELERATION AND
   ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG/SEVERE WINDS SHOULD BE LARGELY MITIGATED BY A VERY STABLE LOW
   LEVEL AIRMASS.
   
   FARTHER WEST-NORTHWEST...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM FAR NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA
   OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND A
   SOURCE REGION RESERVOIR OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMPLE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT. A
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF ROBUST ELEVATED
   CONVECTION INDEED CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO INTO
   IA.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   LAT...LON   41099507 41609488 42099419 41189149 40579019 40188906
               38558969 38449123 39159157 40119273 40359454 41099507