MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 130741Z - 130945Z
   
   OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   SIGNS OF TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NERN KS AND WRN MO EARLY TODAY. IT
   IS POSSIBLE THAT A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THESE AREAS PRIOR TO
   DAYBREAK.
   
   THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS APPEAR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
   THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDGE OF
   SRN PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION FROM NERN KS INTO WRN MO OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. PERSISTENT LIFT AND GRADUAL MOISTENING ALONG
   850-700MB FRONTAL SLOPE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
   ALLOW PARCELS TO EVENTUALLY REACH AN LFC BASED NEAR 700MB. IF STORMS
   CAN INITIATE OVER THESE AREAS AS INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND ARW
   SIMULATIONS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POTENT SHEAR IN THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED/PERSISTENT STORM
   UPDRAFTS FAVORING THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. UPSCALE GROWTH MAY
   OCCUR AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET ACHIEVES MAXIMUM DIURNAL INTENSITY
   THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   38909647 39569663 39899580 39579403 39059299 38619241
               38099233 37509292 37519413 37809510 38909647