MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE / ERN WY / SERN MT / WRN SD / SWRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 121852Z - 121945Z
   
   N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING FROM SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE NWD
   INTO SERN MT AND SWRN ND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW--PROBABLY BY
   20-21Z.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ISOLD TORNADO
   RISK DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER A PORTION OF
   THIS REGION.
   
   RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 40
   MI NNE CPR WITH A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
   IMMEDIATELY E OF THE FRONT RANGE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THAT
   IS DRAPED FROM NERN WY INTO N-CNTRL SD.  S OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPS
   ARE STEADILY WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   50S-LOWER 60S.  N OF THIS BOUNDARY...ELY FLOW UNDERNEATH SCATTERED
   CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY ADVECTING RICHER MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 50S
   DEWPOINTS/ INTO SERN MT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH M0VING INTO WRN WY WHILE A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
   MOVING NEWD FROM SERN UT INTO WRN CO SHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
   S-CNTRL AND SERN WY THE PAST HOUR WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY/DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  THE AIRMASS E OF THE DRYLINE IS STEADILY
   DESTABILIZING AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  UNDULAR CHARACTER TO
   LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THIS REGION REMAINS
   CAPPED...WITH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO OCCUR FIRST ACROSS ERN
   WY--WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
   
   FURTHER HEATING OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL LEAD TO A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/ BECOMING UNCAPPED BY
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS
   WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS
   ENCOUNTER RICHER MOISTURE NEAR THE ERN WY BORDER.  BACKED LOW LEVEL
   FLOW ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH INVOF
   THE WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
   THAT DEVELOP/TRACK THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR.  ELSEWHERE...LARGE TO VERY
   LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   LAT...LON   41740449 44190572 45270626 46570600 47420466 47370315
               46560179 42110173 41540228 41200295 41270400 41740449