MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS/ N-CNTRL INTO SWRN OK / PARTS OF THE TX
   LOW ROLLING PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 092027Z - 092230Z
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A
   LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER STORMS.  A WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY ONCE STORM INITIATION IS
   IMMINENT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
   
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DUAL SURFACE LOWS NEAR 40 MI WSW SLN AND
   50 MI SE BGD ON A FRONT WITH A PREFRONTAL WINDSHIFT/CONFLUENCE ZONE
   ARCING E AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE TX
   PANHANDLE LOW ALONG THE CAPROCK.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
   OVER THE NEB/KS/CO/OK PANHANDLE REGION...WITH THE TRAILING INFLUENCE
   OF THIS DISTURBANCE PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS
   THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES ENEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY
   TONIGHT.  PW/S ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES ARE HOLDING NEAR 1 INCH...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   SHOWING TEMPS AROUND 100 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.  THIS
   HAS RESULTED IN VERY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WITHIN A DEEP
   WELL-MIXED PBL...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE-H5 LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 9 DEG C/KM.  STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR /40 KTS/ HAS OVERSPREAD THE
   NRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR FARTHER S
   ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS.  GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND A VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION
   WITH SUPERCELL POTENTIAL--ALBEIT INCREASINGLY GREATER WITH FURTHER
   NWD EXTENT.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL
   THREAT /PERHAPS VERY LARGE NEAR AND N OF THE OK-KS BORDER/ AND
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34480074 35100049 36499893 38069837 38249792 38019713
               37569650 37149642 35599791 33809951 33920007 34060055
               34480074