MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND NERN KS / NWRN MO / FAR SERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091913Z - 092045Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY 20-21Z WITH A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT--INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
   TORNADOES--FORECAST ACROSS E-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NWRN MO AND FAR SERN
   NEB.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z TO ADDRESS THIS LIKELY
   THREAT.
   
   LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW 40 WNW HUT WITH A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
   FAR SERN NEB AND INTO S-CNTRL IA.  A PRE-FRONTAL WINDSHIFT/TROUGH
   EXTENDS SSWWD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW INTO
   NWRN OK.  RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60 TO NEAR
   70 DEG F IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  ASIDE FROM
   A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN
   MO...STRONG HEATING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES ARE RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
   INTO THE 80S AND 90S FURTHERING PBL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER EJECTING ENEWD
   TOWARDS THE REGION WITH AN ATTENDANT AREA OF UVV/S FORECAST TO
   SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM W TO E IN WAKE OF A DECAYING MCV /LOCATED
   NEAR NEB/MO/KS BORDER/ MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  
   
   TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO
   MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IN A GENERAL W TO E FASHION PER PROFILER/88D
   VAD DATA.  OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS 50 KT 6 KM AGL FLOW AT THE CNTRL KS
   WIND PROFILER...SUGGESTIVE OF STRONGER UPPER FLOW BEGINNING TO
   OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR--BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. 
   STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT
   THE RISK OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE/DMGG WIND GUSTS. 
   MEANWHILE...TOPEKA AND KANSAS CITY VAD/VWP DATA EXHIBIT SOME
   CLOCKWISE CURVATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
   NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A STALLED/MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
   NWRN MO.  THIS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY
   TOWARDS EVENING...WHEN 150-250 0-1 KM SRH IS FORECAST AS A SLY 35 KT
   LLJ DEVELOPS BY 00Z OVER ERN KS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   37449721 37909852 38509835 40189696 40689574 40349452
               39249378 38629412 38069496 37459607 37449721