MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0936 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE/WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
   YORK...WESTERN THRU NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091436Z - 091600Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   THREAT.  ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY THE 16-18Z
   TIME FRAME.
   
   INHIBITION FOR THE POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IS GRADUALLY
   WEAKENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  THIS IS OCCURRING AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES  OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ON
   THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...BEGINS TO SPREAD TO
   THE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  UPPER SUPPORT...COUPLED
   WITH PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG INLAND ADVANCING LAKE
   BREEZES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY...ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE
   INITIATION OF STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO... INCREASING
   THROUGH THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME.  ALTHOUGH WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW
   FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST /25-35 KT/...AS LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS.  EVENTUALLY...CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
   GROWTH MAY ENSUE...LEADING TO BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   42018016 42157950 43037821 43287638 43927578 44807458
               44727338 43277337 42177428 41167627 40277762 39857902
               40038042 40748045 42018016