MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 090036Z - 090200Z
   
   THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NY
   AS A LINE-SEGMENT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEW WW WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NY BY 01Z.
   
   A LINE-SEGMENT CURRENTLY IN ONTARIO IS LOCATED AHEAD OF STRONG
   MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WATERY VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
   ANALYSIS. THE VORTICITY MAX ALONG WITH A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE LINE-SEGMENT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO NY
   THIS EVENING. THE LINE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 45 KT WHICH
   WILL AID THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE SRN END OF THE LINE MAY BE
   FAVORED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND WEAKER INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN NRN NY.
   FURTHER SOUTH IN CNTRL NY...A GRADIENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. AS THE LINE-SEGMENT MOVES
   DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NY...THE WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME ENHANCED. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   42787455 43477381 44147425 44347533 44317652 44007743
               43387783 42917724 42787455