MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...ROLLING PLAINS OF W/NW
   TX...WRN OK...FAR S-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 082218Z - 082315Z
   
   A THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HRS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   A VERY HOT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEVELOPED THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX INTO WRN OK...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW POSITIONED
   JUST N OF GAG AND A DIFFUSE/WEAKLY CONVERGENT DRYLINE PROTRUDING SWD
   INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS OF W TX. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWS INCREASING CU ORIENTED ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE...BUT MORE
   ROBUST VERTICAL GROWTH HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR BY THE PRESENCE OF
   CINH. WITH THE APPROACH OF PEAK DIABATIC HEATING...COMBINED WITH
   WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HRS. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 19Z EXPERIMENTAL
   WRF-HRRR AND 12Z WRF-NMM MODEL SOLUTIONS. DESPITE STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /EXCEEDING 8 DEG C/KM/ AND VERY HOT SFC
   TEMPERATURES...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ONLY YIELD SBCAPE
   VALUES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN DEEPLY-MIXED/INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
   LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...A THREAT FOR DMGG DOWNBURST WIND
   GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   36889884 34679889 32590015 31810120 31740176 33600142
               36100048 36880013 37109957 37089919 36889884