MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN-CENTRAL NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 080422Z - 080545Z
   
   MONITORING MCS/CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...IF
   CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED
   OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN-CENTRAL NY.
   
   A RELATIVELY SMALL QUASI-LINEAR MCS /ROUGHLY 50-60 MILES IN WIDTH/
   CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS/GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...APPROXIMATELY 90
   MILES NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO AS OF 0415Z. WITH A FORWARD MOTION OF
   AROUND 40 KT...WELL-ORGANIZED CHARACTERISTICS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
   THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING A REAR INFLOW JET AND RADAR IMPLIED/SURFACE
   ANALYZED COLD POOL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THIS MCS
   IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A LOW LEVEL MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. HERE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F...WITH A CONTINUED LOW LEVEL THETA-E FEED FROM
   THE WEST PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND AMPLE INSTABILITY ALOFT /4500 J PER KG MUCAPE/ NOTED AS
   PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FORM ALPENA/DETROIT MI.
   
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MCS MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
   WEAKER SHEARED/PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO WESTERN NY IN
   THE PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT/SURFACE RIDGE
   AXIS...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE ALOFT WERE NOTED IN THE 00Z
   BUFFALO OBSERVED RAOB. REGARDLESS...THE EXISTING FORWARD MOMENTUM
   /40 KT/ AND EXISTING ORGANIZATION OF THE MCS MAY YIELD A DAMAGING
   WIND/PERIODIC HAIL THREAT INTO WEST-CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY
   IN VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES. IF MCS SUSTENANCE CONTINUES OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   43677656 43237591 42007737 42197942 43427889 43677656