MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SRN WV...SWRN VA...ERN TN...WRN NC...FAR
   WRN SC...FAR NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 072204Z - 080000Z
   
   A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
   EVENING. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW.
   
   THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL ATTENDANT TO A DECAYING
   LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS OVER SRN OHIO VALLEY REGION
   EXTENDS FROM WRN VA INTO ERN KY. THE 21Z SFC OBSERVED SFC PRESSURE
   PATTERN REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED WAKE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
   COLD POOL...WITH PRESSURE RISES UP TO 5 MB IN 2 HOURS NOTED ACROSS
   SRN WV. WHILE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE OUTFLOW HAS
   LARGELY OUTRUN MAINLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...THE INFLOW
   OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINTAINING
   POCKETS OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD POOL
   SLIDES SWD AND INTERACTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN. THE THREAT FOR A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE THE COLD POOL IS
   LEAST SHALLOW...GIVEN PRECONVECTIVE DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
   J/KG. FARTHER SOUTH...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING...MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   WHERE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS PER
   GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG VWP. WITH A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   TO FARTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT COULD ENSUE. IN THE
   ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OR FORCING...CONVECTION WILL
   LARGELY BE DISORGANIZED AND SHOULD EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING
   AFTER 02Z IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   35098485 36038427 37688371 38128339 38288289 38008231
               37798172 37788102 37578043 36568024 35298109 34468236
               34288363 34498441 35098485