MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0613 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...SWRN AL...ERN LA...FAR SERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 052313Z - 060115Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG
   WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE ISOLATED NATURE
   OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE...RESULTING FROM THE
   AGGREGATE EFFECTS OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY /FROM THE GULF OF
   MEXICO/ AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW /FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR THE
   GULF COAST/...CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
   GREATEST NWD ACCELERATION IN THIS ZONE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER SERN MS
   IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER CONVECTION TO ITS SOUTH...WITH THE AGGREGATE
   BOUNDARY ALREADY HAVING REACHED HATTIESBURG WHERE A MARKED WIND
   SHIFT TO SLY HAS BEEN NOTED IN RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. AHEAD OF
   THIS BOUNDARY...THE JACKSON MS OBSERVED SOUNDING...MODIFIED FOR
   CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS...SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG
   SUPPORTED BY VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE OWING TO THE HOT BOUNDARY
   LAYER. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
   ACTIVITY LIKELY CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY. PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. COLLAPSING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS...GIVEN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1200 J/KG.
   THIS COULD YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
   ENHANCED BY NELY FLOW OF 15-20 KT WITHIN THE 2-3-KM-AGL LAYER
   OBSERVED FROM THE JACKSON VWP. THE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY
   CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...AND WITH
   ANY MERGING COLD POOLS.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   30908770 30338832 30188931 30149122 30649248 31669294
               32569285 33059215 33299144 33428956 33278788 31778746
               30908770