MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK / FAR NERN TX / SWRN-CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 051756Z - 051900Z
   
   AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
   ACROSS THE KIAMICHI AND OUACHITA MTNS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE I-30
   CORRIDOR IN CNTRL AR.  ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLD-WIDELY SCTD STORM
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...THE THREAT FOR STRONG-SEVERE PULSE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SEEMS
   TO EXIST.  A WW IS POSSIBLE...IF...THE STORM COVERAGE/WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE REGION
   WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH STRONG DIABATIC
   HEATING OCCURRING EITHER SIDE OF A DEVELOPING CU FIELD OVER THE
   KIAMICHI AND OUACHITA MTNS.  THE 12Z LZK/SHV RAOBS SHOWED STEEP
   H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C/KM ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER /15.5 G/KG LOWEST 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/.  SBCAPES 3000-5000
   J/KG HAVE DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE FIELDS...AND
   WITH A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE NOW IN PLACE...THE THREAT
   FOR ISOLD STRONG-SEVERE MICROBURSTS WILL BEGIN IN THE NEAR TERM AND
   PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...OWING TO THE VERY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS...EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL
   TEND TO LIMIT THIS THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   34229523 34519520 34869479 35109361 34919216 34549179
               34189174 34009192 33419437 33659484 34229523