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Mesoscale Discussion 1088 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...SERN AL...FAR NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042222Z - 050015Z
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF DMGG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE...RESULTING FROM THE AGGREGATED EFFECTS OF A
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...LIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR NRN FL...AND HAS SURGED NWD INTO SWRN GA EAST OF A MESOLOW
LOCATED OVER EXTREME SWRN GA. AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE PROPAGATES NWD
AND OVERTAKES ONGOING CONVECTION...IT SHOULD INVIGORATE THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT OCCURRED AHEAD OF
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. WITH
DCAPE VALUES OF 1200-1300 J/KG...STRONG WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH COLLAPSING STORMS...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF DMGG WINDS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW PER
TALLAHASSEE VWP DATA YIELDING MINIMAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...CONVECTION
WILL PRIMARILY EXHIBIT A PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
INSTANCES WHERE COLD POOLS CAN AGGREGATE...MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS COULD ENSUE...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR A
WW.
..COHEN.. 06/04/2011
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31408274 30938218 30358193 29958247 30148378 30458472
30308591 30438663 30898684 31658638 31838557 31748375
31408274
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