MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN GA...CNTRL/SRN AL...CNTRL/SRN MS...ERN LA...FL
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 032232Z - 040030Z
   
   A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED
   TO NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT
   THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
   AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INVOF A SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
   PROPAGATING NWD...WHILE LYING ACROSS SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND
   THE FL PANHANDLE. NORTH OF THIS ZONE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 20
   CORRIDOR...AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   OWING TO HOT SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
   WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW MORE SPOTTY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ACROSS THE
   ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...DCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 1800 J/KG COULD
   PROMOTE INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG SFC WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
   20 KT OF NLY TO ELY FLOW IN THE 3-4-KM-AGL LAYER OBSERVED FROM
   JACKSON MS AND BIRMINGHAM AL VWP DATA. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGER
   HAIL WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY MELTING PROCESSES AS IT FALLS
   THROUGH THE HOT BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A
   PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT GREATER FORCING
   AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MERGING COLD
   POOLS...LOCALIZED AREAS OF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND A
   SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. NEVERTHELESS...WITHOUT
   ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   30178497 30578666 30588933 30939163 31919200 32759131
               33519006 33788895 33828699 33378507 32278376 31138319
               30228350 30178497