MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0537 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...
   
   VALID 022237Z - 030000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419
   CONTINUES.
   
   ANYTHING BEYOND A RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN.  TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO BE MONITORED...
   BUT A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM OF WW 419...ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
   DAKOTA...DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT...AND MAY NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   VIGOROUS POST-FRONTAL STORMS REMAIN FEW IN NUMBER AS THEY SPREAD
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A STRONGER AREA OF MID-LEVEL
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PIVOTING AROUND THE EASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.  THIS STRONGER FORCING
   ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR ONGOING STORMS WILL
   MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN A DRYING ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
   MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.  POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD
   TOWARD THE MINOT AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH 00-02Z. 
   MIXED LAYER CAPE APPEARS ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN THE WARM
   SECTOR OF THE LOW...BUT MID-LEVEL INHIBITION REMAINS RATHER
   STRONG...AND IS ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING
   AS STRONGER FORCING WITHIN UPSTREAM TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
   WEST OF THE REGION.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   LAT...LON   49090146 48560052 47850004 47140041 46820135 46700276
               46580440 46520541 47600532 48320581 48660630 49100634
               49090146