MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN VA...ERN MD...DE...SRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412...
   
   VALID 020025Z - 020200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412
   CONTINUES.
   
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS DUE TO THE
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING IS BEING MANIFESTED IN WEAKENING TRENDS
   OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS ERN AND SRN SECTIONS OF WW412 PER MOSAIC
   RADAR IMAGERY. DESPITE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN PA TO CNTRL WV...AND SHALLOW
   CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
   DC/BALTIMORE AREA...SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE STABILIZATION. THE LINGERING THREAT FOR A
   STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS /DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J PER
   KG/ MAY PERSIST DURING THE NEXT HOUR OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL
   VA...AS EVIDENT WITH ACTIVITY OVER FAR NRN HANOVER COUNTY VA.
   HOWEVER...THIS REGION IS REMOVED FROM THE AXIS OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   FLOW IN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   ONTARIO/QUEBEC...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE SUSTENANCE. IN
   THE ABSENCE OF ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE
   REMINDER OF THIS EVENING...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   DIMINISHING. AS SUCH...WW412 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 02Z.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   37687777 38007829 38617789 39197640 39397469 38397474
               37817621 37687777