MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SWRN MO...NERN OK...NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 011855Z - 012100Z
   
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG ELEVATED STORMS HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   OVER NERN KS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  MORE RECENTLY...STORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SWRN MO. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
   WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CINH HAS ERODED IN SERN KS/SWRN
   MO WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...LEADING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG IN THIS
   REGION...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL DEVELOP AS STORMS INTENSIFY.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 30 KTS WILL
   LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..JIRAK.. 06/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   36409481 36669521 37059559 37799617 38159655 38569704
               39089760 39719793 40099758 40209690 39979628 39779588
               39409525 38999478 38469428 38109393 37729364 37199335
               36799334 36599327 36079353 35939399 36239474 36419480
               36409481